Florida Single-Tenant NNN Market Report

The defining development of the quarter was a hawkish turn at the Fed. Holding the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% was expected; raising the 2026 median dot to 3.8% — a level that implies a possible hike rather than a cut — was not. Coming into 2026 the consensus was for easing, and the prior quarter's report still carried a one-cut base case. With the 10-year Treasury back near 4.46%, the practical message for net-lease investors is higher-for-longer financing, which puts a floor under cap rates and a ceiling on near-term compression. The assets most exposed are lower-credit and short-remaining-term deals that rely on cheap leverage to pencil.

Against that backdrop, the resilience of investment-grade, long-term net lease is striking. Overall single-tenant asking cap rates barely moved (6.80%, down 1 bp) and retail held flat at 6.55% for a second straight quarter. But the averages hide the real action: trophy QSR ground leases and credit convenience stores keep compressing, while short-dated pharmacy has repriced into the 8–9% range as Walgreens shrinks to its core under Sycamore Partners. The spread between the best credit/term and the rest is as wide as it has been in years — a market that rewards underwriting tenant credit, lease term, and guarantor structure rather than buying a sector.

Florida remains a standout for transaction activity, and the trades that printed were overwhelmingly convenience-store pads. The corporate 7-Eleven portfolio at a 5.20% cap, the Sumterville and Haines City 7-Elevens, the Melbourne Space Coast store, and the Ocala Wawa together show that credit c-store and fuel product is still clearing at premium pricing even with a higher rate curve. For 1031 buyers, the calculus is nuanced: IPX1031's 2026 outlook projects rising exchange volume as costs stabilize, but that outlook predates June's hawkish reversal — buyers should not assume a near-term financing tailwind. The durable Florida thesis (no state income tax, sustained in-migration, deep tenant demand) is intact regardless of the rate path.

Expect the Q2 2026 national net-lease prints (published in July) to show cap rates flat-to-slightly-wider rather than continuing to compress, given June's move higher in the rate curve and the Fed's hawkish projections. The bifurcation should persist or widen: trophy ground leases (Chick-fil-A, McDonald's, Raising Cane's, Wawa, bank pads) stay tight on scarcity and credit, while pharmacy, lower-credit QSR franchisee deals, and short-dated product continue to reprice wider.

For Florida specifically, convenience-store and drive-thru QSR pads should remain the most liquid and tightly priced segment, with Wawa's aggressive build-out keeping a steady pipeline of new long-term ground leases in Orlando, Tampa, and especially Northeast Florida. Pharmacy is now a yield/credit play, not a safe-haven trade — underwrite the specific store and the remaining term, not the brand. Grocery (ALDI, in particular) and dollar-store BTS continue to generate fresh inventory in growth corridors.

From MaxLife Commercial's seat, the best move for a Florida NNN owner over the next 90 days is to know which side of the bifurcation your asset sits on. A long-term, investment-grade, hard-corner pad is in one of the strongest seller's markets in the country; a short-dated or lower-credit asset will be priced to the new rate reality. We are happy to run a current, comparables-based opinion of value before you decide whether to take the market's bid.