Q2 2026 · April – June 2026 · Florida single-tenant net lease • Orlando • Tampa • Jacksonville • Central FL • statewide
Florida Single-Tenant NNN Market Report
The Q2 prints landed: net-lease cap rates ticked modestly higher as the Fed dropped its 2026 cut — but Florida QSR and c-store stayed tight
Published July 13, 2026 · MaxLife Commercial Research
Executive Summary
The Q2 2026 net-lease data is now in, and it confirmed the higher-for-longer thesis. The Boulder Group's Q2 report (published early July) put the overall single-tenant net lease median asking cap rate at 6.82%, up 2 basis points from Q1, with retail at 6.60% (up 5 bps), industrial at 7.25% (up 10 bps), and office flat at 7.90% — the first broad uptick after Q1's compression. The move tracked the Federal Reserve's June 17 turn: the Fed held the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% for a fourth straight meeting but its updated projections removed the 2026 rate cut it had penciled in, raising the median year-end dot to 3.8% and signaling a possible hike rather than easing, while the 10-year Treasury pushed to roughly 4.54% by mid-July. Beneath the flat index the market stayed sharply bifurcated: premium corporate ground leases (McDonald's, Chick-fil-A) held near a 4.45% asking cap while franchisee QSR (6.85%), dollar stores (7.49%), and drug stores (7.85%) traded far wider. Florida remained one of the most active single-tenant markets in the country, and the quarter's closings were led by QSR and convenience product — a newly built Lake Nona Chipotle traded at a disclosed 4.56% cap, and Circle K, 7-Eleven, Wawa, and a Shell/Dunkin' pad all changed hands.
Macro Context
Rates, employment, and macro indicators as of end of Q2 2026. Sourced from Federal Reserve / FRED, BLS, and Census.
Fed Funds Target Range
3.50% – 3.75%[1]
Held for a 4th straight meeting on June 17, 2026
Fed Dot Plot — 2026 Median
3.8% projected at year-end[2]
Raised from 3.4% in March; the Committee now signals a possible hike, not cuts
10-Year Treasury Yield
~4.54%[3]
Friday July 10, 2026; ranged ~4.54–4.58% July 9–10
Orlando MSA Unemployment
4.4%[4]
May 2026 (not seasonally adjusted), up from 3.5% a year earlier
By Asset Class
Cap rates, vacancy, absorption, and rent growth. Fields are omitted when no sourced data is available rather than shown as placeholders.
Single-Tenant NNN
Cap Rate Range
6.82%[5]
Overall single-tenant net lease median asking cap rate, Q2 2026 (up 2 bps from 6.80% in Q1)
The Q2 2026 data is now published, and the headline barely moved: overall single-tenant asking cap rates ticked up 2 basis points to 6.82%. The story remains dispersion by tenant credit and lease term. Boulder's Q2 sector reads put premium corporate ground leases (McDonald's, Chick-fil-A) near a 4.45% asking cap — the tightest product on the board — with corporate QSR at 5.85% (up 3 bps) versus franchisee QSR at 6.85% (up 5 bps), auto parts flat at 6.45%, dollar stores at 7.49% (up 2 bps), and drug stores flat at 7.85%. Boulder's most recent per-tenant profiles (Q1 2026, its latest tenant-level edition) frame the trophy end on 15-year terms: McDonald's ground 4.30–4.60%, Chick-fil-A ground 4.20–4.50%, and Wawa 4.90–5.20%; wider-credit product runs far higher, with Dollar General 6.75–8.50%, Family Dollar 7.80–8.20%, and Walgreens spanning roughly 6.40–9.00% depending on remaining term. These are national benchmarks; Florida assets in strong corridors generally trade at or inside them given the state's demand depth.
Retail
Cap Rate Range
6.60%[5]
Retail net lease median asking cap rate, Q2 2026 (up 5 bps QoQ from 6.55%)
Retail net lease cap rates rose 5 basis points to 6.60% in Q2 2026 after holding flat through Q1 — a modest give-back consistent with June's move higher in the rate curve. Index-level stability continues to coexist with a wide gap between investment-grade, long-term credit and everything else, and well-located single-tenant retail on hard corners still draws the deepest bid pools.
Industrial / Warehouse
Cap Rate Range
7.25%[5]
Industrial net lease median asking, +10 bps QoQ (largest move of the quarter), Q2 2026
Single-tenant industrial net lease widened 10 basis points to 7.25%, the largest single-quarter move among the major net-lease sectors and a reversal of Q1's slight compression. The move reflects the higher financing curve more than any deterioration in industrial fundamentals, which remain firm.
Office
Cap Rate Range
7.90%[5]
Office net lease median asking, unchanged QoQ, Q2 2026
Net-lease office held flat at 7.90% after compressing 10 bps in Q1. It remains the widest-priced major net-lease sector, reflecting the structural caution around office generally, though credit-tenant office continues to find selective buyers.
Notable Transactions
Central Florida commercial transactions that closed in Q2 2026 and were reported in the public press. Citations in brackets.
Chipotle — Lake Nona (Orlando)[10]
$4.5MOrlando • Orange County • Single-Tenant NNN
Size
2,493 sf
Cap Rate
4.56%
Closed
Announced June 26, 2026 (Q2 2026)
Buyer: Columbus, OH investor (1031 exchange) · Seller: Florida-based developer (not named)
A newly built Lake Nona Chipotle on a 15-year corporate-guaranteed absolute-NNN lease, sold by SRS Capital Markets at a disclosed 4.56% closing cap rate — a clear trophy-QSR marker and the tightest Florida single-tenant print we tracked this quarter.
Shell / Dunkin' fuel-and-food pad — Florida City[11]
$8.5MFlorida City • Miami-Dade County • Single-Tenant NNN
Size
8,599 sf
Closed
Announced June 18, 2026 (Q2 2026)
Buyer: Sunshine Gas (tenant, via right of first refusal) · Seller: Private seller (not named)
An off-market, all-cash sale of a net-leased Shell gas station and Dunkin' convenience store brokered by Marcus & Millichap. The operating tenant, Sunshine Gas, exercised a lease right of first refusal — a legitimate single-tenant net-lease trade, but an owner-user acquisition rather than an arm's-length investor cap-rate benchmark. Cap rate not disclosed.
Circle K ground lease — Seminole[12]
$4.26MSeminole • Pinellas County • Single-Tenant NNN
Size
5,200 sf
Closed
Announced June 25, 2026 (Q2 2026)
Buyer: South Florida private investor (1031 exchange) · Seller: Ohio-based developer
A newly constructed Circle K on a 15-year corporate-guaranteed absolute-NNN ground lease with 10% bumps every five years, sold by SRS. Cap rate not disclosed by the parties.
7-Eleven — Haines City[13]
$3.0MHaines City • Polk County • Single-Tenant NNN
Closed
Broker-reported May 5, 2026 (Q2 2026)
A Polk County 7-Eleven on a corporate absolute-NNN lease with roughly nine years remaining (expiring 3/31/2035) plus four 5-year options, current rent $155,790 with 10% increases. Brokered by The Boulder Group for a repeat 1031 buyer. Cap rate not disclosed.
Wawa — Ocala[14]
$4.846MOcala • Marion County • Single-Tenant NNN
Closed
April 2026
A new Ocala Wawa fuel-and-food pad sold for $4,846,000. Cap rate not published; consistent with the premium pricing Wawa product continues to command across Central and North Florida.
7-Eleven — Space Coast Town Center[15]
~$9.8MMelbourne • Brevard County • Single-Tenant NNN
Size
4,740 sf
Closed
June 2026
A newly built 7-Eleven in Melbourne's Space Coast Town Center traded for nearly $9.8M (AllFinancial Group acquiring from WDG Real Estate Partners), underscoring sustained Space Coast net-lease demand.
Submarket Spotlight
QSR and convenience: where Florida's Q2 bids concentrated
The Florida trades that printed this quarter were overwhelmingly drive-thru QSR and convenience pads. A newly built Lake Nona Chipotle sold at a disclosed 4.56% cap — proof that trophy QSR still clears sub-5% even with a higher rate curve — while Circle K, 7-Eleven, a Wawa, and a Shell/Dunkin' pad all changed hands across the state. Nationally, Boulder's Q2 read put premium corporate ground leases near 4.45% and separated corporate QSR (5.85%) from franchisee QSR (6.85%), a spread that rewards corporate guarantees. For sellers of a credit QSR or c-store pad on a hard corner, this remains one of the deepest bid pools in the country.
- •Newly built Lake Nona (Orlando) Chipotle traded at a disclosed 4.56% cap rate
- •Premium corporate ground leases (McDonald's, Chick-fil-A) held near a 4.45% asking cap nationally in Q2 2026
- •Corporate QSR asking 5.85% vs franchisee QSR 6.85% — investors paying up for corporate credit
- •Florida c-store trades closed across Pinellas, Polk, Brevard, Marion and Miami-Dade counties in Q2
- •Wawa continues an aggressive Florida build-out (~100 new US stores planned in 2026), feeding a steady pipeline of new long-term ground leases
Practitioner Commentary
The defining story of the quarter is the data catching up to June's hawkish turn. The Boulder Group's Q2 2026 report — published in early July — showed single-tenant net-lease cap rates ticking modestly higher across the board (overall 6.82%, up 2 bps; retail 6.60%, up 5 bps; industrial 7.25%, up 10 bps; office flat at 7.90%), the first broad uptick after Q1's compression. The proximate cause was the Federal Reserve: on June 17 it held the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% for a fourth straight meeting but removed the 2026 rate cut it had previously projected, lifting the median year-end dot to 3.8% and pointing toward a possible hike. With the 10-year Treasury backing up to roughly 4.54% by mid-July, higher-for-longer financing is now the base case, and that puts a floor under cap rates.
Beneath the flat index, bifurcation is as wide as it has been in years. Premium corporate ground leases (McDonald's, Chick-fil-A) held near a 4.45% asking cap, corporate QSR sat at 5.85%, and investment-grade convenience product stayed tight, while franchisee QSR (6.85%), dollar stores (7.49%), and drug stores (7.85%) traded far wider. Pharmacy remains the widest investment-grade product on the board as Walgreens shrinks to its core under Sycamore Partners — the lesson is to underwrite the specific store, remaining term, and guarantor rather than the brand. Boulder's latest per-tenant profiles (Q1 2026) frame the spread concretely: Wawa around 4.90–5.20% on 15-year terms against Dollar General at 6.75–8.50% and Family Dollar at 7.80–8.20%.
Florida stayed a standout for transaction activity, and the quarter's closings were led by QSR and convenience product. The Lake Nona Chipotle at a 4.56% cap, the Seminole Circle K, the Haines City 7-Eleven, the Ocala Wawa, the Melbourne Space Coast 7-Eleven, and the Florida City Shell/Dunkin' pad together show that credit QSR and c-store product is still clearing at premium pricing even with a higher rate curve. For 1031 buyers, IPX1031's 2026 outlook still projects healthy exchange activity, but June's removal of the projected cut means investors should not underwrite a near-term financing tailwind. The durable Florida thesis — no state income tax, sustained in-migration, deep tenant demand — is intact regardless of the rate path.
Commentary reflects MaxLife Commercial's in-market observations and is not a representation of sourced data.
Outlook for Next Quarter
With the next FOMC meeting on July 28–29 and the Committee now signaling a possible hike rather than a cut, expect the Q3 2026 net-lease prints to stay flat-to-slightly-wider rather than resume compressing. The bifurcation should persist or widen further: trophy ground leases (Chick-fil-A, McDonald's, Raising Cane's, Wawa, bank pads) hold tight on scarcity and credit, while pharmacy, lower-credit franchisee QSR, and short-dated product continue to reprice wider.
For Florida specifically, convenience-store and drive-thru QSR pads should remain the most liquid and tightly priced segment, with Wawa's aggressive build-out keeping a steady pipeline of new long-term ground leases across Orlando, Tampa, and especially Northeast Florida. Pharmacy is now a yield/credit play, not a safe-haven trade — underwrite the specific store and the remaining term, not the brand. Grocery and dollar-store build-to-suit continue to generate fresh inventory in growth corridors.
From MaxLife Commercial's seat, the best move for a Florida NNN owner over the next 90 days is to know which side of the bifurcation your asset sits on. A long-term, investment-grade, hard-corner pad is in one of the strongest seller's markets in the country; a short-dated or lower-credit asset will be priced to the new rate reality. We are happy to run a current, comparables-based opinion of value before you decide whether to take the market's bid.
Data Gaps
For transparency, here's what we looked for but could not find a published source for in time for this report. If you have insight into any of these, please let us know.
- —The Boulder Group's Q2 2026 national net-lease research report (published early July 2026) is the primary source for all headline and sector cap rates here, independently corroborated by MBA NewsLink (July 7) and Connect CRE (July 13). Boulder's separate Net Lease Tenant Profiles document, however, is still the Q1 2026 (March 2026) edition — no Q2 2026 tenant-profiles edition existed at publication — so the per-tenant 15-year ranges (McDonald's, Chick-fil-A, Wawa, Dollar General, Family Dollar, Walgreens) are labeled Q1 2026 tenant-level data, not Q2.
- —Several per-tenant ranges that circulate in secondary write-ups (7-Eleven, Circle K, Raising Cane's, bank ground leases, Dollar Tree, and a specific 5-year CVS band) could not be confirmed against a Boulder primary release and were excluded rather than asserted. Two ranges were corrected against the Q1 2026 Boulder release itself: Dollar General is 6.75–8.50% (not the tighter figure seen elsewhere) and Family Dollar is 7.80–8.20%.
- —No firm publishes a Florida-specific single-tenant net-lease cap-rate index. Florida cap-rate color combines the national Boulder benchmarks with the actual Florida closings cited and MaxLife Commercial's in-market observation.
- —Q2 2026 CBRE and Northmarq net-lease reports were not yet published at this date; the CBRE cross-check reflects its Q1 2026 U.S. Net Lease Investment figures (total volume $12.2B, industrial 58%, retail 22%; published May 7, 2026).
- —None of the cited Florida broker press releases prints an exact closing date; the release/announcement date is used as a Q2 2026 proxy and each transaction is labeled as broker-reported. Where a cap rate was not disclosed by the parties (every trade except the Lake Nona Chipotle at a disclosed 4.56%), only the verified price and lease terms are stated and no cap rate is implied.
- —The Florida City Shell/Dunkin' sale was the operating tenant (Sunshine Gas) exercising a lease right of first refusal — a legitimate single-tenant net-leased asset sale, but an owner-user acquisition rather than an arm's-length investor cap-rate benchmark.
- —Boulder's Q2 2026 release also cited an increase in for-sale supply; the specific property-count and bid-ask-spread figures could not be independently confirmed from the sources parsed and were therefore not asserted in the body.
- —The 10-year Treasury (~4.54%, July 10, 2026) and Orlando MSA unemployment (4.4%, May 2026) were triangulated via FRED/BLS mirrors after the primary pages blocked automated retrieval; confirm against FRED DGS10 and the BLS Orlando page for exact daily figures.
Sources & Citations
- [1]
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (June 17, 2026)
Federal Reserve Board • Published June 17, 2026
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm - [2]
Summary of Economic Projections (June 17, 2026)
Federal Reserve Board • Published June 17, 2026
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260617.htm - [3]
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS10)
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) · St. Louis Fed
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10 - [4]
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Economy at a Glance
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics • Published May 2026 data (released early July 2026)
https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.fl_orlando_msa.htm - [5]
Single-Tenant Net Lease Cap Rates Rise to 6.82% in Q2 2026 (National Net Lease Research Report)
The Boulder Group • Published July 2026 (Q2 2026 data)
https://www.bouldergroup.com/media/pdf/2026-Q2-Net-Lease-Research-Report.pdf - [6]
Single-Tenant Net Lease Cap Rates Rise, Boulder Group Reports
MBA NewsLink (Mortgage Bankers Association) • Published July 7, 2026
https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2026/july/single-tenant-net-lease-cap-rates-rise-boulder-group-reports/ - [7]
Net Lease Cap Rates Tick Upward in Q2 2026
Connect CRE • Published July 13, 2026
https://www.connectcre.com/stories/net-lease-cap-rates-tick-upward-in-q2-2026/ - [8]
Net Lease Tenant Profiles — Q1 2026 (latest tenant-level edition)
The Boulder Group • Published March 2026
https://www.bouldergroup.com/media/pdf/NetLeaseProfile26Q1.pdf - [9]
Q1 2026 U.S. Net Lease Investment Figures (total volume $12.2B; industrial 58%, retail 22%)
CBRE • Published May 7, 2026
https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/q1-2026-us-net-lease-investment-figures - [10]
SRS Real Estate Partners Sells Lake Nona Chipotle Property for $4.5 Million (4.56% cap)
SRS Real Estate Partners (via Sahm Capital) • Published June 26, 2026
https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/srs-real-estate-partners-sells-lake-nona-chipotle-property-for-45-million-2026-06-26 - [11]
Marcus & Millichap Brokers $8.5M Sale of Net-Leased Gas Station and Convenience Store in South Florida
Marcus & Millichap • Published June 18, 2026
https://www.marcusmillichap.com/news-events/press/2026/06/6-18-florida-city-gas-station - [12]
SRS Real Estate Partners Announces the $4.26M Ground Lease Sale of a Circle K Property in Seminole, Florida
SRS Real Estate Partners (via citybiz) • Published June 25, 2026
https://www.citybiz.co/article/864516/srs-real-estate-partners-announces-the-4-26-million-ground-lease-sale-of-a-circle-k-property-in-seminole-florida/ - [13]
Net Leased 7-Eleven Sold in Florida (Haines City)
The Boulder Group • Published May 5, 2026
https://www.bouldergroup.com/blog/net-leased-7-eleven-sold-in-florida/ - [14]
New Wawa in Ocala Sold for $4.8 Million
Ocala-News.com • Published April 21, 2026
https://www.ocala-news.com/2026/04/21/new-wawa-in-ocala-sold-for-4-8-million/ - [15]
7-Eleven in Melbourne, Florida Sells for Nearly $9.8 Million
CoStar News • Published June 17, 2026
https://www.costar.com/article/1247629301/7-eleven-in-melbourne-florida-sells-for-nearly-9-8-million - [16]
Wawa opens Northside gas station and convenience store
Jacksonville Daily Record • Published April 30, 2026
https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2026/apr/30/wawa-opens-northside-gas-station-convenience-store/ - [17]
2026 1031 Exchange Trends & Market Update
IPX1031 • Published 2026
https://www.ipx1031.com/1031-trends-2026/
Ready to see what your property is worth today?
Market reports are a starting point. A property-specific valuation is free, confidential, and typically takes 20 minutes on a call.
This market report is published by MaxLife Commercial, a Florida licensed real estate brokerage (FL Broker License #3354351), for informational and educational purposes only. It is not legal, tax, financial, or investment advice, and does not create a brokerage, agency, or client relationship.
Third-party data is cited to its original publisher; MaxLife Realty makes no warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, or currency of third-party data. In-market commentary reflects practitioner observations and is not a representation of sourced figures. Equal Housing Opportunity.